The Next Big Sound

The world is changing dramatically. In Detroit, Michigan, the motor industry is having to evolve due to competition and the necessary minimization of oil consumption in the United States. Along with that, the general philosophy on energy consumption is shifting gears. We are starting to look into new technologies like solar power, bio-diesel, wind power, and hydroelectric power in order to meet and sustain our energy needs. A lot of the methods are still highly experimental and uncertain, but the fact of the matter is that there is change coming and we are readying ourselves for it by testing out all different elements.

In a similar way, the music industry has been going through a change. I would contend that the music evolution began with the establishment of Napster in 1999. Napster was a truly revolutionary service that harnessed the Internet in its purest form. Using the intrinsic communicability of the Internet, Shawn Fanning, a then Northeastern University student, began the largest scale music sharing platform the world had ever known.The image above describes, in its simplest form, just how Napster worked. Essentially, the Internet worked to connect all of our computers together into one central mainframe. Then through a simple system of sharing files with one another, people were able to transfer music on their own system to other systems that tapped into the same network. To be perfectly honest, Napster is brilliant due to its simplicity and ease of use.

Similar to using Google, individuals would merely search a song that they wanted and the system would show all of the files available in the system. The user then just selected the file that they were most happy with and the download began. Unfortunately at the end of the 20th century, download speeds were still relatively slow for individual users, and thus a 5.0 kbps/second rate was considered optimal (we've certainly come a long way since then).

Anyway, the emergence of Napster was the inflection point -- or as Malcolm Gladwell would tell us, the Tipping Point -- of the musical industry. No longer was music truly in the hands of large record labels or even the artists themselves. The musical power had been transferred to the user. We were free to share music and essentially make all of it available to the whole world through the Internet.

Since then, music has had to deal with a great deal of transformation. Steve Jobs and Apple have worked hard to legitimize the public dissemination of music through their program iTunes which allows users to purchase songs at a rate of $0.99 a song and typically $9.99 for a full album. Downloading music for free is still very much available. If you prefer a little more of a risky approach you could try using Kazaa, but this illegal downloading program is full of viruses and I personally don't like the system very much. Another approach is to use Pirate Bay, which is a search engine full of torrents. This program is working very hard to legitimize its downloads and does well due to its comments section and a rating system of safety associated with trusted torrents.

However, the concept of music and its dispersion is still being determined. As NPR reports, in time people may pay for music based on the bandwidth that is used. Furthermore, consider websites like Pandora that allow individuals to listen to music of their liking for as long as they want as though a radio, while Pandora pays a fee to the artist each time their song is played.

Considering all of these different elements and recognizing that we are truly still in the midst of understanding how music will evolve with the Internet, I present a revolutionary concept called The Next Big Sound.

• The Next Big Sound

The Next Big Sound might in fact be the future of music on the Internet and the world. The concept of The Next Big Sound is that individuals, people just like you and me, "sign" musical artists to our very own record labels. Rather than waiting for DefJam, Columbia, Jive, Zomba, Universal, or Arista to come along and throw the musical artist a bone, this system circumvents that process by getting listeners who already enjoy the music to micro-finance the band (in a sense).

The concept of micro-financing is brilliant and is really only possible due to the power of the Internet. In a sentence, micro-financing allows bands to request $10 for 1,000 rather than $10,000 from one person. Due to the connectivity of the Internet and the ability to expose oneself and one's product or service, the Internet is an unbelievably conducive environment to allow this sort of transaction to take place.

Anyway, the website is also a place where individuals can expose themselves to new music. In fact, a person using the website (the Next Big Sound calls these people Moguls) is encouraged to sign musical artists that they think will gain enormous popularity. This is incentivized on the website by a Mogul Score, which is based on how many people sign the same musical artist after you. So, if I invest in Band X and they blow up and 20,000 other people sign them, my Mogul Score will be huge and I can gain a reputation on the site for spotting talent early.

The Next Big Sound also only allows individuals to sign a maximum of 10 bands at a time, which adds an added element of strategy into the mix. I like this component of the website, because it makes an individual think carefully about how they use the service and further augments the meaning of the Mogul Score due to the fact that it becomes slightly more challenging to gain a good score and thus more impressive when a person on the website does so.

There is a great deal of benefit to the musical artist who signs into The Next Big Sound. First, users of the website are looking to follow and invest money into bands in order to increase their own Mogul Scores. This will help the bands attain money if their music is perceived to be good by the user on the website. Second, the website provides free streaming music of songs to individuals before investment. Therefore, musical artists are likely to increase their exposure even in the event that they are not invested in.

The Next Big Sound has already received a great deal of press from the New York Times, Mashable, Daily Candy, Decision Factory, and The Guardian. The reviews generally speak to its innovative nature and its new way of approaching the music industry. After reading excerpts from these publications, I cannot agree more with them.

The Next Big Sound is a phenomenal concept that is a necessary wave of change that the music industry needs. It is fresh and cutting-edge. The idea has been worked through logically and the management has clearly considered it from several different angles in order to attain the desired effect that they set out to achieve. I look forward to seeing great things from this website and general concept in the future.

iTunes Play Count

I recently ran a survey on Those Answers in order to measure how accurate the number one played song on an individual's iTunes reflects that persons preference for their current favorite song. There are several reasons that drew me to make this conclusion and thus seek out the necessary data to verify it.

First, I considered that when people enjoy something, they tend to expose themselves to it more. For example, consider a person who is a vegetarian. This person has consciously made the choice to not eat meat. They might choose to do so because they are against animal cruelty, are trying to save the environment, or are just opposed to the taste of meat products. As a result, they don't expose themselves to any meat.

I feel like this is true for most other things in a person's life. If they enjoy it, they will continue to expose themselves to it, if not, they will likely avoid it all costs. Therefore, a person would probably choose to expose themselves to their favorite song as much as possible, thereby increasing the number of play counts on their iTunes.

Second, I consider the psychological theory of the mere exposure effect. This theory states that as an individual is exposed to a stimulus more and more, they will gradually begin to like that stimulus. This reasoning is the reverse-logic of my first point, suggesting that exposure drives favoritism, rather than favoritism driving exposure.

I ran this survey without the intention of determining which principle is truly driving the amount of times a song is played on iTunes, but rather to check whether the top song played on a person's iTunes is in fact an individual's favorite song. In order to test either of my inferences about iTunes, I needed to determine whether if the top played song was in fact a favorite for people on average.

The results that follow provide both a visual and analytical attempt at answering the question: Is the number one played song on iTunes considered a person's current favorite song, on average?

• Results

The results are based on the responses by 61 participants. 28 Females, 32 Males, and 1 Unidentified. The average age of a respondent was 21.24 years with a standard deviation of 3.82 years. The youngest respondent was 14 and the oldest respondent was 45. The data was compiled between March 3, 2009 and March 8, 2009.

Respondents were first asked to sort their iTunes so that it was ranked by Play Count, which is easily ordered by clicking on the tab at the top of the iTunes program. Participants in the study were asked to list the artist and the name of the song that came up as their most frequently played. The list to the left summarizes the 61 respondents' songs and artists that are the most frequently played song on their iTunes.

I'd like to point out the diversity in music tastes exhibited by this list. There is only a few artists that are featured more than one time. These include: Radiohead, Jack Johnson, Wilco, and The Fray. Part of my motivation to perform this survey was to increase the variety of music I am exposed to, and this list certainly has helped.

Following these questions, I found out how many times the individual had played their number one song. Respondents averaged 90.51 times played for their number one song on iTunes. This had a standard deviation of 91.80, with a high of 465 times played and a low of 5 times played. The median was 67 times played. With these amount of times played, on average, I think that this sample is pretty generalizable. I recognize that some people listen to their iTunes and music a lot more than others, but there is a wide diversity in the range of times played, which make the results of this study interesting to a large demographic of people (those who listen to music a lot, and those who do not).

The image to the right reveals a histogram of the number of times the most played song has been played on iTunes. As you can see, the majority of respondents have listened to their number one played song on iTunes less than 150 times. There are some individuals who have listened to their number one played song more than 150 times, but this makes up a vast minority of the respondents.

The next question I ask really gets at the crux of the question that I posed. I asked participants if the number one played song was their favorite song right now. According to the results, only 8 participants (13%), said that the number one played song on their iTunes was their favorite song right now. That is countered by 52 participants (87%) who said that the number one played song on their iTunes was not their current favorite song.
In the previous question to participants, I suggested that the top played song was their favorite song right at this moment. I anticipated that some people may have liked that song in the past, played it a lot, and have perhaps moved on to other musical endeavors. Therefore, I also asked if this song had ever been their favorite song in the past. The following graph reveals that there is a general spread as to when people liked their number one played song on iTunes.

There certainly isn't any prevailing time period at which this was their favorite song. It is important to note, however, that five individuals stated that they actually never liked their top played song on iTunes. There is a minor trend to take away from the respondent's answers; that being that the song that is most played was their favorite sometime within the last year. A good majority of participants agreed that this song was their favorite at some point within the last year.

I was also curious as to where the top played song on a person's iTunes ranks in terms of their all time list of favorite songs. This question gives participants a wider degree of freedom in terms of how much they enjoy their top played song on iTunes. Only a small number of individuals revealed that their number one played song on iTunes was their favorite. An even larger number revealed that they didn't even like the most played song on their iTunes.

A majority of respondents ranked their top played song on iTunes as one that would fall in their top 25 favorite songs of all time. There was also a relatively high frequency of individuals who ranked their top played song on iTunes as one that merely falls within their top 100 songs of all time.
Finally, respondents were asked to list characteristics about their second most played song according to their iTunes Play Count. The second most played song was played on average 70.14 times with a standard deviation of 70.08 times played. The most amount of times the second most played song was played was 380 and the least amount was 4 times played. The median amount of times the second most played song was played was 56 times.
Respondents were then asked to make a determination about whether they considered their number one or number two played song on their iTunes their personal favorite. This is another very good way of measuring the extent to which the number one played song is the current favorite of the person being surveyed. The results indicate an almost perfect split. 31 of the 61 participants (51%) indicate that their favorite song of the two is the most played song on their iTunes. This means that the other 30 participants (49%) chose their second most played song on iTunes as their favorite song.

• Conclusion

The purpose of this survey was to test the validity of the Play Count function on iTunes as a measure of an individual's favorite song. According to the results, this measure's validity seems unlikely.

Only 13% of individuals considered their number one played song their current favorite. Additionally, when individuals were given the opportunity to decide between their most played song and second most played song on iTunes, the preference was almost perfectly split, which does not suggest that the top song on iTunes necessarily holds any extra clout in measuring a person's favorite current song.

However, the number one played song on an individual's iTunes may suggest certain generalizable attributes. First, it appears as though the most played song was the individual's favorite song at some point, but not necessarily at the present time. Additionally, the most played song on an individual's iTunes at least makes the top 25 list of all time favorite songs for a majority of people.

Though, I cannot assert that the most played song on iTunes is an individual's favorite song now, it certainly can indicate the musical preference of that individual at some point in time.