The World in 2020

I recently ran a survey on my website, Those Answers, in which I intended to gain some insight into how people view various World issues and their potential status in the year 2020. The survey asked people about some of the most significant threats affecting the World, issues and people, the evolution of energy, corporate impact, and how to make a difference. I found the results extremely interesting.

The survey was taken by 47 individuals who ranged in age from 18 to 63. The average age of a respondent was 22.51 with a median of 21. Of those 47 individuals who chose to report their gender, 22 were male and 20 were female.

The rest of this post will be a graphical display of the results that I found, in addition to some of my thoughts as to why the results may appear as they are. I hope you enjoy.

• Results

What is the greatest threat to humanity?

According to the results, Nuclear Weapons and Biological Warfare is the greatest threat to humanity and as we get closer to the year 2020, it will become a bigger problem. It was the only one of the choices available that had a higher percentage of respondents (40% vs. 49%) agreeing that it would be a greater threat in the year 2020.

I think that this choice is a rational one and most definitely something that needs to be addressed. Nuclear proliferation means that countries have the capacity to retaliate with weapons of mass destruction. At the push of a button cities can be destroyed.

Other threats to humanity that several respondents agreed upon were Poverty and Natural Disasters. Both of these issues show declining trends as the primary threat to humanity in the year 2020, which indicates an optimistic view of resolving the issues as well as confidence in the current measures in place.

Drugs and Alcoholism and Random Acts of Violence received a very small percentage of the total respondents primary threat to humanity. Additionally, Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STD's) was only seen as the greatest threat to humanity by approximately 10% of respondents. STD's like HIV/AIDS, herpes, or gonorrhea affect millions of people around the World, and I found it surprising that people didn't consider this a very big threat, even when compared to Nuclear Weapons, because it impacts so many people already, whereas, the use of Nuclear Weapons is not even a reality aside from the bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the conclusion of World War II.

63.8% of respondents maintained their choices from the year 2008 to 2020. This implies that some of the greatest challenges already facing the World today will still be of primary concern in the year 2020.

Who/What is the most dangerous force on the planet?

The most dangerous force on the planet was determined to be the US President. This was a surprising find in my opinion, and I can't really determine one thing in particular that would make this the case. I suppose the US president has enormous power militarily due to his (or her) ability to attack other countries and a massive collection of nuclear warheads. In many ways, the US President dictates World policy.

I was further suprised to see the low percentage of respondents that believed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Iranian President) was the most dangerous force (18%). Further, the percentage of people who believe Osama Bin Laden (14%) and Kim Jong-Il (7%) combined was less than the percentage of people who believed the President of China was the most dangerous person in the World (23%).

What resource will be most depleted by 2020?

According to the results of this survey, the most depleted resource by 2020 will be Clean Air. This is by an overwhelming margin as well. Its closest competitor was Drinkable Water which lagged behind by 23%. This was followed by Arable land with 20% of the respondents votes and finally Agricultural Produce with 9%.

Clean air is becoming an enormous problem, especially as the World population continues to grow at an exponential rate and as cities around the World become more densely populated. A McKinsey Global Institute report on China in 2025 indicated that the air quality in several Chinese cities could become noxious and unbearable due to pollution.

According to the McIlvaine Company, the air pollution reduction market will grow by an approximate rate of 17% compounded annually through 2015, becoming a $20+ billion per year industry.

I think that our respondents are spot on with their assessment of this particular issue.

Between 2008 and 2020, what energy resource will be most utilized?

The energy resource most utilized by 2020 was spread out and indicates the uncertainty of the alternative energy market as it stands currently. There are several alternatives and based on the even spread by respondents, it appears as though there is no clear sign of which alternative energy resource will be used most.

Leading the charge was Solar Energy, Ethanol, and Coal. I think that all of these show significant benefit and means to channeling resources away from Petroleum. Coal will most definitely be used in greater excess, as the United States has the most significant World share at 27.1% (Source).

I was surprised about the low amount of respondents who chose Environmentally Friendly Biofuels, as I am a huge proponent of them. I think that this type of fuel uses resources most effectively while also being least harmful to the environment overall.

Which country will have the highest per capita GDP by 2020?

The country that is projected to have the highest per capita GDP by the year 2020 was China. They received 49% of the votes. China was followed by the United States with 28% and Japan with 15%.

The question asked was about per capita GDP, which gives an idea as to the personal wealth of an average individual in a particular country. This does not necessarily relate to total GDP, which can be massive for a country, but when looked at through the scope of each person, may become very small.

That is why the choice of China by such an overwhelming percentage is surprising. Accordining to the Wikipedia article of Per Capita GDP, China currently ranks 99th according to the IMF, and 105 according to the CIA. This essentially means that an individual in China compared to the rest of the World is poorer than around 100 nations. While China will probably have the highest overall GDP by the year 2020, their per capita results are dismal.

The United States is currently ranked 6th by the IMF and 8th by the CIA. This makes sense when you think about a common person in the United States versus a common person in China. The standard of living is far higher for the average individual in the United States.

Small percentages went to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates even though they are both ranked far higher than China (Saudi Arabia = 37 & UAE = 15).

What industry shows the greatest potential for growth through 2020?

By an overwhelming margin, the industry that shows the greatest potential for growth through 2020 was determined by the respondents to be Alternative Energy with 67% of respondents agreeing. This was followed next by Information Technology, 19%, and Financial Services and Energy tied at 6% each.

Even though it is the dawn of the information age, people are overwhelmingly agreeing with the fact that alternative energy will trump technologies rise in the coming decade. These results may be skewed by the current situation with oil prices, yet, they are not unfounded as these issues need to be addressed.

The need to seek out Alternative Energy goes hand-in-hand with the fact that people are conscientious about the environment.

Which of the following corporations will have the greatest impact through 2020?

There are two prominent corporations that were chosen by the respondents that will have the greatest impact through 2020, and the results relate to the emerging industries over the next decade. The highest percentage was given to Exxon, 40%, but was closely followed by Microsoft with 36%.

These two companies are metaphors for energy and information technology, and it makes sense that they would be most prominently chosen.

There were several companies that received no votes by respondents at all. McKinsey & Company received 0% of the votes, which raises questions about the value of service industries. Caterpiller received 0% of the votes, which raises questions about the value of construction, and 3M received 0% of the votes, which raises questions about innovation and development of newer technologies not only related to information.

How do you tackle complex World issues?

Finally, respondents were asked how to tackle complex World issues. This was intended to give insight into how people think some of the problems that were discussed in the survey are best dealt with. Most people, 36%, believe that tackling complex World issues are done by use of Grassroots Movements. This essentially means that things are started locally and expand from there. This was in stark contrast to Governmental Intervention that received 17% of the votes by respondents.

Following Grassroots Movements, respondents also believed that a Societal Paradigm Shift, 30%, was the most effective way of tackling complex World issues. This means thinking in a new way about issues, and in this context, it means an entire society agreeing to think a new way about something.

For instance, I can see this beginning with LED (light emitting diode) lights versus incandescent lights. People are all starting to change their light bulbs due to energy and environmental concerns. It just takes a long time, but it is very effective.

Thoughts?

There was a final area where respondents could write down their thoughts if they wanted. Some people wrote that they enjoyed the survey, which was very nice feedback. A lot of people made reference to how the survey was vague or too general, or that I left out certain "issues."

The fact is that I was just trying to take the temperature of perspectives on the year 2020, not necessarily make a full blown diagnosis. Additionally, the year 2020 is very far away, and it's hard to be specific about something that is so distant.

• Conclusion

The results of the survey are compelling and interesting. I think one of the most interesting things to note about the first couple of questions asked relating to threats, both issues and individuals, is that most people worry about problems that aren't even a reality, and forget about those already afflicting us.

While Nuclear Weapons are scary, poverty, sexually transmitted diseases, and random acts of violence affect people every day, and impact most likely 2/3 of the World's population.

We need to keep perspective on issues that are already needing our resolve.

Alternative energies are springing off in so many directions at the moment that it is hard to tell which will be most utilized. The varied choices by respondents indicate the lack of direction.

While most people believed China to have the greatest per capita GDP by 2020, they will probably be alarmed to realize that China ranks 99th in the World when it comes to per capita GDP. Just because a country as a whole makes a lot of money by volume doesn't necessarily mean that its average inhabitant is reaping those benefits. With 1.3 billion people it would make sense for China to have the highest total GDP, but we have to remember how that wealth is spread amongst that enormous amount of people.

Finally, of the respondents surveyed, 23 of them believed that "The World will be a 'better' place than it is in 2020 than 2008." This represents exactly 50% of the responses for this question, revealing that the other 50% of respondents do not believe the world will be a "better" place in 2020.

This is unfortunate split, as most respondents were in their early 20's, and at the start of their independent lives. One would hope that the younger generation remains idealistic and optmisitc about the future, because in the year 2020, it is a majority of this survey's respondents who will be combatting and trying to contribute solutions to the various issues raised in this survey. There are a lot of issues that need to be dealt with over the coming decade; that is for certain.

Simply Syntroleum

I'm a big fan of the stock market. I enjoy following its movement, the stories behind the companies, and the people involved. I'm not sure what has made me the avid stock fiend that I am today, but I thought its a combination of a love of numbers, money, and suspense. The stock market has all of these bundled into one happy little 6 and a half hour session, typically five days out of every week.

For more esteemed reasons, I enjoy partaking in the stock market because it keeps me informed as to the pulse of the American economy. The American economy is a significant, if not the most significant player in the whole world when it comes to the economy. The stock market is a barometer of where America's economy is and by virtue of its power and enormity, where the rest of the world's economy is likely to head.

These are all fascinating things. I also find the ways in which stocks are picked just marvelous. There are two particularly different trains of thought that I'm aware of. The first is fundamental analysis, in which stock brokers and institutional investors (you know, the guys who all had to writedown billions upon billions of dollars in wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, which I read totaled a whopping 12 trillion dollars (92% of US GDP)) look at financial data for publicly traded companies and make judgments based on the current economic climate.

They take factors like the balance sheet and income statement into account, as well as, management practices. I'm a huge proponent of looking at management practices. I believe that with the right team and suitable actors in the correct places, a capable management team can make even the most desperate company rise from the depths.

Anyway, another way to look at stocks is through the lens of technical analysis which emphasizes the stocks historical data as it relates to price and makes its judgments based on these metrics. I've always loved deciphering charts and trying to gain a further understanding of them especially for various stocks in the market.

Recently, I've become enthralled with a particular type of technical analysis called Point and Figure Charting, which you can read about on Those Answers Inc. website. The main idea behind it is that it charts the price movement of the stock in terms of supply and demand, the main driver underlying all economic thought. Simply by creating a vertical column of X's or O's, a tremendous deal of information can be gathered about the buying or selling habits of a particular stock.

Another nice feature about it is that it doesn't take time into effect, which can often distort the movement of stocks. On the surface, Point and Figure Charting may look very simple, but there is a tremendous amount to it that has fascinated me and led me to one of the best looking and most promising stocks I can see available at the moment.

• Syntroleum (SYNM)
  

According to Google Finance, "Syntroleum Corporation is engaged in developing and employing technology to produce synthetic liquid hydrocarbons that are free of contaminants normally found in conventional hydrocarbon products. Syntroleum’s Bio-Synfining Technology processes triglycerides and/or fatty acids from fats and vegetable oils with heat (thermal depolymerization), hydrogen and catalysts to make renewable synthetic fuels, such as diesel, jet fuel (subject to certification), kerosene, naphtha and propane. Syntroleum has quantified in excess of 80 different fats and oils, for conversion to synthetic fuels via the Bio-Synfining Technology, which is a flexible feedstock/flexible synthetic fuel technology."

In a nutshell, Syntroleum has developed a new and special technology that is capable of creating diesel fuel using fat. This means, that instead of using corn to make ethanol gas, which ends up hurting us either way because then it makes corn really expensive, we can use the stuff we don't even want in the first place, fat, to make fuel through this incredibly innovative and breakthrough technology.

I have never felt a stronger buy in my entire life. I first saw this stock when it was wallowing in the sub $1 range, almost being thrown off of the NASDAQ, because it just couldn't keep up with regulations. Since then it has returned in excess of 400%. It is currently at $2.24 a share and shows me no signs of slowing down whatsoever.

Let's get back to the process though. They make diesel fuel. This is spectacular for several reasons. First, the price of diesel fuel, along with petroleum, has skyrocketed recently (I believe the price of diesel fuel has actually outpaced petroleum percetage-wise). This spike in prices has begun a paradigm shift to move away from oil and to some sort of alternative energy.

Last summer, the push to alternative energy happened with solar energy. Companies like First Solar (FSLR) grew impressively. Their stock is now trading above $200, up from around $5 early last year. Different alternative energies are getting their shots, its just a matter of picking the right company. There are several other solar energy companies that did not see the massive gains that First Solar did (however, they were still sizable).

With these high oil prices and no one really knowing when they will ever come down, alternative energy, especially that which produces diesel fuel, is ripe for investing. People want to believe in an alternative energy source, and Syntroleum seems to continually have the answer.

For instance, their Bio-Synfining Technology needs fatty acids in order to occur. So, Syntroleum has recently struck a partnership with Tyson Chicken, the largest chicken farm in the World (#88 on the Fortune 500 List), to use all of their chicken fat. Not only does Syntroleum have the greatest supply of fat on the planet, but it is an unending supply.

Chicken fat, or any sort of animal fat, is completely renewable. There is no end to how much of this stuff we can use, and for the most part, there aren't many other uses for chicken or animal fat, so this takes something worthless and makes it pure profit. Pure genious really.

But heres where things really get good. Syntroleum and Tyson, their joint-venture called Dynamic Fuels LLC, just received $100 Million worth of GO Zone Bonds. GO stands for Gulf Opportunity, and is a program that was established post hurricane Katrina by the State of Louisiana. The bonds are tax exempt are meant to promote investment in the area.

In late June, Dynamic Fuels LLC was approved for $100 Million, the maximum amount paid out in the program. Their plan is to build a synthetic fuel facility in Geismar, Louisana by 2010.

This was well received by Jeff Bigger, Senior Vice President of Business Development at Syntroleum, "We thank the Bond Commission for their decision to approve this application. Their timely action enables us to maintain our project schedule, creating new domestic fuel production capacity, high-quality operations and technical jobs, with initial production planned for early 2010.”

Everything is going absolutely right for this company. What's more is that now that it's above $2, stock brokers are legally allowed by the SEC to promote this stock to investors which will drive the price up as demand increases. As the price goes up, mutual fund managers will want to add this stock to their portfolios, and several institutional investors have already added Syntroleum, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Scott and Stringfellow Financial, etc.

On July 22nd, 2008, Syntroleum plans on holding a conference call for investors to discuss all the positive news that has been circulating around this company of only 24 employees. They will probably make reference to the GO Zone Bonds, Dynamic Fuels LLC, their joint-venture, and the approval of their synthetic fuel plant in Geismar, Louisana.

Syntroleum seem to be on the right track. They've got the capital they need, they have a mammoth partner on who to piggyback, an original technology that makes one of the most sought after commodities, and plans to build a facility in which all of this wonderful Bio-Synfining can occur. All this company spells out to me is growth and profits, over and over.

• Conclusion

At $2.24, Syntroleum is not only a buy, but highway robbery if you can steal it at this price. Over the next 12 to 18 months this stock is going to explode. They have the technology, capital, and partnerships they need all necessary to create a profitable endeavor.

What's more, the economic climate is just right at the moment. Oil prices are surging. People are looking for alternative ways to create energy and seeking out those that are the wisest investments.

Syntroleum has taken the necessary steps to get them to where they are, and I feel as though they will continue to meet and exceed the market's expectations.

If stock price is indeed the perceived future valuation of a company, Syntroleum truly has no limit. Happy investing!